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Gatsby Grey

10yo Gelding · 10-1 · OR 69

Listowel · Eric Browne Memorial Maiden · 1m 4f

#7

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#7

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Veteran who was pulled up in 3 consecutive chases over the spring and made no impact on his Flat handicap debut last month. Now blinkered.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength33%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 8 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 6.2)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C9.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA139 @ Leopardstown 05/03/2023 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 139 · 2m2f61y Yie 166 · below its mark05/03/2023 · OR 139 par5/03139OR 1391 @ Aintree 15/04/2023 · Pos 5th of 22 · OR 141 · 3m149y GS 162 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/04/2023 · OR 141 parBHA139 @ Punchestown 27/04/2023 · Pos 11th of 25 · OR 139 · 2m7f130y Goo 163 · below its mark27/04/2023 · OR 139 par27/04139OR 139C0 @ Leopardstown 13/07/2023 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 1m7f Gd 156C8 @ Curragh 03/11/2024 · Pos 18th of 19 · OR - · 1m4f Yie 1393/11C8C0 @ Thurles 20/11/2025 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR - · 2m6f Yie 166C0 @ Clonmel 02/12/2025 · Pos 10th of 15 · OR - · 2m1f62y Hvy 1662/12C?C8 @ Limerick 26/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 117 · 2m1f130y Sft 159 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/12/2025 · OR 117 parBHA72 @ Gowran Park 07/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 72 · 1m4f100y Goo 163 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark07/08/2026 · OR 72 par7/0872OR 72projClass-projected finish: 9th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-07Gowran ParkBHA729th8th+1
2026-04-24KilbegganBHA110−3
2026-04-12Down RoyalBHA114−3
2026-03-12LimerickBHA114−3
2025-12-26Limerick?6th5th+1
2025-12-02Clonmel?10th10th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/0313/072/127/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1333% of fieldRange 8-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength8%

Delivery trend -0.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/03/20233rd10/382%50%-0.32
15/04/20235th14/126%81%+0.55
27/04/202311th14/126%58%+0.32
13/07/20235th7/163%43%-0.20
03/11/202418th80/10%6%+0.06
20/11/202511th50/10%0%0.00
02/12/202510th33/10%36%+0.36
26/12/20256th16/116%17%+0.01
07/08/20269th66/10%0%0.00