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Glowing Account

9yo Gelding · 10-1

Listowel · Eric Browne Memorial Maiden · 1m 4f

#3

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

5%

Place Prob

12%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Le Havre gelding who displayed fairly useful form in bumpers in 2023, winning here on his debut. Confirmed he retains ability on his second start after a lengthy absence when third of 8 in minor event at Killarney (17f, good) 31 days ago. Back down in trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Listowel 17/09/2023 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 2m Goo 16817/09C?C0 @ Cork 15/10/2023 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 2m3f Yie 16815/10C?C0 @ Leopardstown 29/12/2023 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 2m Sft 16829/12C?C8 @ Galway 29/07/2026 · Pos 15th of 18 · OR - · 1m4f43y Yie 16629/07C8C0 @ Killarney 21/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 2m180y Gd 15821/08C?projClass-projected finish: 6th of 9
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-21Killarney?3rd3rd0
2026-07-29Galway?15th15th0
2023-12-29Leopardstown?5th5th0
2023-10-15Cork?4th4th0
2023-09-17Listowel?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0915/1029/1229/0721/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1392% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +19.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/09/20231st2/598%100%+0.02
15/10/20234th4/998%63%-0.35
29/12/20235th12/137%43%+0.06
29/07/202615th25/10%18%+0.18
21/08/20263rd28/10%71%+0.71