IvyArcIvyArc
9

Michinaga

3yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 76

Listowel · Eric Browne Memorial Maiden · 1m 4f

#8

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Mid-field in 3 maidens so far and appeals as one for handicaps.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 8.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Leopardstown 06/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR - · 1m1f Goo 1346/08C8C8 @ Roscommon 18/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR - · 1m4f48y Goo 13418/08C8C8 @ Navan 05/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 21 · OR - · 1m2f10y Gd 1345/09C8projClass-projected finish: 5th of 9
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Navan?9th9th0
2026-08-18Roscommon?6th6th0
2026-08-06Leopardstown?9th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/0818/085/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1350% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength91%

Delivery trend +10.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/08/20269th125/10%38%+0.38
18/08/20266th200/10%62%+0.62
05/09/20269th150/10%60%+0.60