6
Shirzan
4yo Filly · 9-10
Listowel · Eric Browne Memorial Maiden · 1m 4f
#2
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
28%
Place Prob
27%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Listowel | BHA107 | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-09-03 | Kilbeggan | BHA107 | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-08-15 | Tramore | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-10 | Cork | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-03-31 | Limerick | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-03 | Leopardstown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1375% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength93%
Delivery trend -6.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/12/2025 | 7th | 80/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 03/03/2026 | 3rd | 40/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 31/03/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 10/05/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 29% | -0.37 |
| 15/08/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 03/09/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 20/09/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 94% | +0.18 |