3
Afloat
6yo Mare · 9-13 · OR 69
Listowel · Gerard Lynch Memorial Handicap · 1m 6f 55y
#8
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#8
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Galway | BHA69 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-02 | Chelmsford City | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-09-05 | Haydock | 5 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-08-14 | Windsor | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-07-23 | Catterick | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-07-19 | Ripon | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1847% of fieldRange 3-18 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength31%
Delivery trend +8.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 18. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 15/05/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 07/06/2025 | 6th | 5/2 | 87% | 0% | -0.87 |
| 19/07/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 23/07/2025 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |
| 14/08/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 55% | +0.39 |
| 05/09/2025 | 10th | 8/1 | 58% | 10% | -0.48 |
| 02/10/2025 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 42% | +0.15 |
| 08/09/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |