9
Alexa Next
4yo Filly · 9-10 · OR 66
Listowel · Gerard Lynch Memorial Handicap · 1m 6f 55y
#16
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#16
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 6.4)
Highest class: BHA69
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-20 | Gowran Park | BHA69 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-06 | Killarney | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-09 | Galway | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-08-26 | Bellewstown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-07-12 | Limerick | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-05-17 | Navan | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 1824% of fieldRange 6-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength46%
Delivery trend +2.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 14th of 18. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/05/2025 | 10th | 66/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 17/05/2025 | 8th | 150/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 12/07/2025 | 7th | 200/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 26/08/2025 | 4th | 125/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 09/09/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 06/10/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 20/10/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 64% | +0.38 |