6
Astelia
7yo Mare · 9-11 · OR 67
Listowel · Gerard Lynch Memorial Handicap · 1m 6f 55y
#7
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#7
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Kilbeggan | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Galway | BHA103 | 0 | ||
| 2026-07-06 | Roscommon | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Ballinrobe | BHA103 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-04 | Down Royal | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-16 | Cheltenham | 2 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1865% of fieldRange 2-15 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength54%
Delivery trend -2.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 18. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 09/08/2025 | 2nd | 8/15 | 97% | 83% | -0.14 |
| 29/08/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |
| 24/09/2025 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 65% | +0.07 |
| 16/11/2025 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 04/05/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 94% | +0.58 |
| 26/05/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 88% | +0.03 |
| 06/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 93% | +0.06 |
| 04/09/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 92% | +0.05 |