11
Forlio
7yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 66
Listowel · Gerard Lynch Memorial Handicap · 1m 6f 55y
#13
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 9.2 /10 (raw 7.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Cork | BHA70 | 16th | 16th | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Roscommon | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Kilbeggan | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Galway | BHA73 | 18th | 18th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Tramore | BHA62 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Naas | BHA62 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 1818% of fieldRange 8-18 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength16%
Delivery trend -3.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 15th of 18. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/05/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 46% | -0.06 |
| 30/05/2026 | 10th | 80/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 06/06/2026 | 3rd | 80/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 24/06/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 79% | +0.79 |
| 07/07/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 29/07/2026 | 18th | 25/1 | 0% | 6% | +0.06 |
| 08/08/2026 | 11th | 18/1 | 5% | 17% | +0.11 |
| 18/08/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 56% | +0.29 |
| 30/08/2026 | 16th | 28/1 | 0% | 12% | +0.12 |