16
Inchiquin Maid
7yo Mare · 9-8 · OR 64
Listowel · Gerard Lynch Memorial Handicap · 1m 6f 55y
#15
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#15
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | Cork | BHA88 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Tramore | BHA65 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-02-11 | Dundalk | BHA61 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-26 | Dundalk | BHA65 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-10-30 | Thurles | BHA89 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-09-26 | Listowel | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish18th of 180% of fieldRange 8-18 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength6%
Delivery trend -0.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 18th of 18.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/02/2025 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 83% | -0.09 |
| 07/03/2025 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 58% | -0.02 |
| 08/04/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 26/09/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 94% | +0.23 |
| 30/10/2025 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 76% | -0.05 |
| 26/11/2025 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 11/02/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 07/07/2026 | 11th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 03/08/2026 | 13th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |