4
Liberated Light
7yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 68
Listowel · Gerard Lynch Memorial Handicap · 1m 6f 55y
#1
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
80%
Place Prob
45%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength41%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 7.2)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C7.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Navan | BHA65 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Gowran Park | BHA67 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Tramore | BHA68 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Tramore | BHA90 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Wexford | BHA91 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-04-20 | Tramore | BHA90 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1882% of fieldRange 1-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength71%
Delivery trend +2.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 18. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/11/2025 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 02/12/2025 | 11th | 28/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 07/03/2026 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 20/04/2026 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 93% | +0.38 |
| 16/05/2026 | 11th | 11/2 | 71% | 17% | -0.54 |
| 30/05/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 07/07/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 60% | +0.18 |
| 07/08/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 63% | +0.02 |
| 02/09/2026 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 87% | +0.87 |