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12

Miss Australie

5yo Mare · 9-10 · OR 66

Listowel · Gerard Lynch Memorial Handicap · 1m 6f 55y

#3

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

4%

Place Prob

10%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Bounced back to something like her very best to pick up her second career victory at Navan (1¾m, good) in August before running well from a 7 lb higher mark when 5¾ lengths third of 13 to Flagstone Lady at Down Royal 17 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength35%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 7.0)

Highest class: BHA53
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA59 @ Gowran Park 22/04/2026 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR 59 · 1m5f160y Sft 141 · below its mark22/04/2026 · OR 59 par22/0459OR 59BHA58 @ Ballinrobe 08/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 58 · 1m1f133y Goo 140 · beat its mark08/05/2026 · OR 58 parBHA57 @ Roscommon 18/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 16 · OR 57 · 1m4f17y Yie 139 · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 57 par18/0557OR 57BHA62 @ Limerick 10/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 62 · 2m1f Yie 132 · below its mark10/06/2026 · OR 62 parBHA62 @ Ballinrobe 22/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 62 · 1m5f Yie 133 · below its mark22/06/2026 · OR 62 par22/0662OR 62C7 @ Sligo 05/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 61 · 1m2f100y Yie 132 · beat its mark05/08/2026 · OR 61 parBHA60 @ Tramore 15/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 60 · 1m4f Goo 144 · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 60 par15/0860OR 60BHA59 @ Navan 27/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 22 · OR 59 · 1m6f Goo 141 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 59 parBHA66 @ Down Royal 04/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 66 · 1m4f194y Goo 148 · beat its mark04/09/2026 · OR 66 par4/0966OR 66projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Down RoyalBHA663rd3rd0
2026-08-27NavanBHA591st1st0
2026-08-15TramoreBHA606th6th0
2026-08-05Sligo?5th5th0
2026-06-22BallinrobeBHA628th8th0
2026-06-10LimerickBHA6210th10th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/0410/0615/084/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1894% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength80%

Delivery trend -0.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 18.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/04/202611th16/116%17%+0.01
08/05/20266th33/10%62%+0.62
18/05/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
10/06/202610th28/10%31%+0.31
22/06/20268th8/158%42%-0.16
05/08/20265th14/126%69%+0.43
15/08/20266th15/261%38%-0.23
27/08/20261st16/116%100%+0.84
04/09/20263rd7/282%83%+0.02