15
Quiz Test
6yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 64
Listowel · Gerard Lynch Memorial Handicap · 1m 6f 55y
#12
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#12
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength2%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: BHA63
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Galway | BHA66 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Limerick | BHA65 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Gowran Park | BHA65 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Navan | BHA65 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-10-16 | Curragh | BHA65 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-22 | Listowel | BHA65 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1841% of fieldRange 2-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength57%
Delivery trend +3.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 18. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 31/07/2025 | 12th | 33/1 | 0% | 35% | +0.35 |
| 09/09/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 88% | +0.41 |
| 22/09/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 79% | +0.15 |
| 16/10/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 94% | +0.58 |
| 25/04/2026 | 9th | 15/2 | 61% | 58% | -0.03 |
| 20/05/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 10/06/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 85% | +0.58 |
| 31/07/2026 | 12th | 20/1 | 0% | 35% | +0.35 |