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5

Soaring Sun

5yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 68

Listowel · Gerard Lynch Memorial Handicap · 1m 6f 55y

#9

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#9

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Gained reward for a trio of placed efforts when off the mark at Dundalk in January. Hasn't been in same form since, but shaped with a bit more encouragement when 10 lengths third of 15 to Coulstys Way at Galway last time.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength12%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.2)

Highest class: BHA69
Recent avg: C7.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Naas 11/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 16 · OR - · 1m Yie 13711/10C8C8 @ Curragh 02/11/2025 · Pos 11th of 23 · OR - · 1m4f Hvy 139C8 @ Dundalk 14/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 69 · 1m2f150y Std 138 · below its mark14/11/2025 · OR 69 par14/11C8OR 69C8 @ Dundalk 05/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 73 · 1m2f150y Std 137 · below its mark05/12/2025 · OR 73 parBHA70 @ Dundalk 17/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 70 · 1m2f150y Std 140 · beat its mark17/12/2025 · OR 70 par17/1270OR 70C8 @ Dundalk 13/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 70 · 1m4f Std 138 · beat its mark13/01/2026 · OR 70 parBHA73 @ Leopardstown 15/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 73 · 1m4f Gd 133 · below its mark15/05/2026 · OR 73 par15/0573OR 73BHA72 @ Tramore 07/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 72 · 1m4f Goo 146 · below its mark07/07/2026 · OR 72 parBHA69 @ Galway 08/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR 69 · 1m4f Sft 139 · beat its mark08/09/2026 · OR 69 par8/0969OR 69projClass-projected finish: 9th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08GalwayBHA693rd3rd0
2026-07-07TramoreBHA728th8th0
2026-05-15LeopardstownBHA737th7th0
2026-01-13Dundalk?1st1st0
2025-12-17DundalkBHA703rd3rd0
2025-12-05Dundalk?2nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/105/1215/058/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 1829% of fieldRange 5-18 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength29%

Delivery trend -4.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 13th of 18. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/10/20255th300/10%73%+0.73
02/11/202511th80/10%55%+0.55
14/11/20253rd10/147%78%+0.30
05/12/20252nd2/189%86%-0.04
17/12/20253rd13/266%85%+0.19
13/01/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
15/05/20267th17/255%33%-0.22
07/07/20268th9/153%30%-0.23
08/09/20263rd20/10%86%+0.86