7
All Roads To Denis
6yo Gelding · 8-12
Mountaineer · Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight · 7f
#10
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-08-09 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Mountaineer | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-06-22 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-18 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1423% of fieldRange 7-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength18%
Delivery trend -7.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 14/10/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 80% | +0.22 |
| 30/10/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 88% | +0.40 |
| 18/11/2025 | 4th | 6/5 | 94% | 50% | -0.44 |
| 22/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |
| 08/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 30/07/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 09/08/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 57% | -0.09 |
| 25/08/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 71% | -0.13 |