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9

Arapaho Nation

3yo Gelding · 8-8

Mountaineer · Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight · 7f

#11

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#11

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Class-adjusted form 7.7 /10 (raw 6.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Mountaineer 09/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 5f 1209/08C6C9 @ Mountaineer 25/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 43 · 6f 120 · below its mark25/08/2026 · OR 43 par25/08C9OR 43C6 @ Mountaineer 07/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 53 · 5f110y Fas 120 · below its mark07/09/2026 · OR 53 par7/09C6OR 53projClass-projected finish: 10th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07Mountaineer?7th7th0
2026-08-25Mountaineer?6th9th−3
2026-08-09Mountaineer?7th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0825/087/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1431% of fieldRange 6-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength35%

Delivery trend -1.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/08/20267th14/126%14%-0.12
25/08/20266th14/126%29%+0.02
07/09/20267th16/116%0%-0.16