5
Mark Of Greatness
3yo Gelding · 8-8
Mountaineer · Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight · 7f
#5
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Mountaineer | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2026-08-11 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-07-30 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-07-05 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1462% of fieldRange 5-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength22%
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 08/05/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 12/06/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 14% | -0.02 |
| 25/06/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 05/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 21/07/2026 | 6th | 7/4 | 91% | 0% | -0.91 |
| 30/07/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 11/08/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 18/08/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |