2
Midnight Stroller
5yo Gelding · 8-12
Mountaineer · Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight · 7f
#14
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#14
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Mountaineer | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2026-08-09 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-07-08 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-06-22 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 140% of fieldRange 11-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -6.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 14th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/01/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 22/04/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 26/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 86% | +0.38 |
| 22/06/2026 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 17% | -0.69 |
| 08/07/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 20% | -0.41 |
| 21/07/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 20% | -0.56 |
| 30/07/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 09/08/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 25/08/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 14% | -0.23 |