3
Ocata
3yo Gelding · 8-8
Mountaineer · Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight · 7f
#2
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
45%
Place Prob
27%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-08-09 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-07-08 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-06-23 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 14100% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +3.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/05/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |
| 23/06/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 17% | -0.49 |
| 08/07/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 21/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 09/08/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |
| 25/08/2026 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 86% | -0.08 |
| 07/09/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |