11
Rough Road Ahead
3yo Gelding · 8-8
Mountaineer · Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight · 7f
#9
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 10.0 /10 (raw 8.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-01 | Charles Town | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2026-02-20 | Charles Town | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1454% of fieldRange 8-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength47%
Delivery trend +47.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/02/2026 | 10th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 01/03/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |