1
The Groom's Jul
5yo Gelding · 8-12
Mountaineer · Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight · 7f
#12
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-08-09 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-06-22 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Mountaineer | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1415% of fieldRange 7-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength20%
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/01/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 22/04/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 12/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 33% | -0.49 |
| 26/05/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 14% | -0.23 |
| 22/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 08/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 30/07/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 09/08/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 43% | +0.17 |
| 25/08/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |