6
They Not Like Us
3yo Colt · 8-8
Mountaineer · Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight · 7f
#6
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Colonial Downs | ? | 9th | 12th | −3 |
| 2026-06-06 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-05-03 | Charles Town | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Charles Town | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1469% of fieldRange 4-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength34%
Delivery trend -6.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/12/2025 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 01/03/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 83% | +0.18 |
| 20/03/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 10/04/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 03/05/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 06/06/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 25/06/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 05/07/2026 | 4th | 13/8 | 91% | 25% | -0.66 |
| 23/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |