Breezer
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 82
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Claiming · 7f
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-08-18 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-03 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 38% | -0.15 |
| 04/04/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 04/05/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 03/06/2026 | 5th | 7/4 | 91% | 0% | -0.91 |
| 29/06/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.01 |
| 20/07/2026 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 33% | -0.59 |
| 02/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 18/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |
| 01/09/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |