Hope Joe's Right
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 71
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Claiming · 7f
#8
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-07-01 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-15 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-25 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Keeneland | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/02/2026 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 56% | -0.34 |
| 06/03/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 19/03/2026 | 1st | 4/9 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 11/04/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 25/05/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 15/06/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |
| 01/07/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 38% | +0.11 |
| 29/07/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 18/08/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |