4
Tapio
6yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 63
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Claiming · 7f
#10
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Mountaineer | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1218% of fieldRange 4-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength41%
Delivery trend +2.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 19/03/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 26/04/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 03/05/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 02/06/2026 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 08/07/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 20/07/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 29% | -0.19 |
| 11/08/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 44% | +0.08 |
| 07/09/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |