Train And Trust
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 81
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Claiming · 7f
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 4.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-09 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-02-19 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.3% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 6th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 27/12/2025 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 04/02/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 78% | +0.30 |
| 19/02/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 09/03/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 21/06/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 01/07/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 29/07/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 63% | -0.16 |
| 19/08/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |