9
Citori
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 60
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Allowance · 5f
#11
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 8.5 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -2.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-07-27 | Fort Erie | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-07-09 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2026-06-13 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2026-05-02 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2025-10-16 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 12-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -10.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 31/08/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 18/09/2025 | 3rd | 4/5 | 96% | 67% | -0.29 |
| 16/10/2025 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 02/05/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 13/06/2026 | 7th | 5/2 | 87% | 0% | -0.87 |
| 09/07/2026 | 7th | 9/4 | 88% | 0% | -0.88 |
| 27/07/2026 | 6th | 6/4 | 92% | 0% | -0.92 |
| 18/08/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 25% | -0.54 |