5
Collected Mist
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 70
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Allowance · 5f
#5
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲3
Strength12%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -2.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-07-29 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Penn National | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-01-12 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-11-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 6th | −4 |
| 2025-10-07 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 7th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 8-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -5.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 88% | +0.61 |
| 23/08/2025 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/09/2025 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 07/10/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 06/11/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 88% | +0.40 |
| 12/01/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 14% | -0.54 |
| 02/06/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 17% | -0.68 |
| 29/07/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 20/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |