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7

Emily's Joy

3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 81

Mountaineer · Race 3 - Allowance · 5f

#3

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

10%

Place Prob

18%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength13%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 8.2 /10 (raw 5.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: -1.9
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 23/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 77 · 6f Fas 118 · below its mark23/10/2025 · OR 77 par23/10C5OR 77C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 03/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 73 · 5f Gd 118 · beat its mark03/11/2025 · OR 73 parC8 @ Turfway Park 14/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 69 · 6f 120 · beat its mark14/01/2026 · OR 69 par14/01C8OR 69C8 @ Turfway Park 11/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 68 · 6f110y Fas 122 · below its mark11/02/2026 · OR 68 parC5 @ Turfway Park 21/02/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 74 · 1m Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark21/02/2026 · OR 74 par21/02C5OR 74C8 @ Turfway Park 11/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 73 · 6f110y 122 · below its mark11/03/2026 · OR 73 parC8 @ Turfway Park 29/03/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 70 · 6f 118 · below its mark29/03/2026 · OR 70 par29/03C8OR 70C0 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 10/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR - · 5f Fm 118C8 @ Mountaineer 09/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 80 · 5f Gd 120 · beat its mark09/08/2026 · OR 80 par9/08C8OR 80projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-09Mountaineer?1st4th−3
2026-07-10Horseshoe Indianapolis?11th11th0
2026-03-29Turfway Park?10th13th−3
2026-03-11Turfway Park?3rd6th−3
2026-02-21Turfway Park?10th9th+1
2026-02-11Turfway Park?3rd6th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/1011/0229/039/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend +1.5% per run

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 1st of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/10/20255th6/168%33%-0.35
03/11/20255th9/153%56%+0.03
14/01/20261st9/153%100%+0.47
11/02/20263rd9/276%78%+0.01
21/02/202610th50/10%10%+0.10
11/03/20263rd5/174%71%-0.02
29/03/202610th25/10%10%+0.10
10/07/202611th50/10%9%+0.09
09/08/20261st1/297%100%+0.03