6
Fair Trade
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 77
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Allowance · 5f
#4
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-08-17 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-07-22 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-07-02 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-05-19 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 7-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength13%
Delivery trend -7.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/03/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 07/04/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 28/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 86% | -0.07 |
| 19/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |
| 27/05/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 02/07/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |
| 22/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |
| 17/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 02/09/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 0% | -0.88 |