1
Lil Breezzy
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 69
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Allowance · 5f
#2
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
51%
Place Prob
39%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -2.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-08-24 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-07-22 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-06-30 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-06-10 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-05-18 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 3-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength43%
Delivery trend +2.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/06/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 30/10/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |
| 27/04/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 25% | -0.62 |
| 18/05/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 10/06/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |
| 30/06/2026 | 1st | 8/15 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 22/07/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 78% | -0.01 |
| 24/08/2026 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 17% | -0.71 |
| 14/09/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |