4
Palmary
6yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 61
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Allowance · 5f
#12
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-08-03 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-07-20 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-06-16 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Charles Town | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 8-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -7.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/04/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 86% | +0.70 |
| 20/04/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 14% | -0.52 |
| 01/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 86% | +0.38 |
| 15/05/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |
| 16/06/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 01/07/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 20/07/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 03/08/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 17/08/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |