12
The Little Sultana
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 81
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Allowance · 5f
#1
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
38%
Place Prob
34%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength7%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-08-04 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-07-09 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-04-27 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-02-11 | Turfway Park | ? | 8th | 11th | −3 |
| 2026-01-23 | Turfway Park | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 2-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength54%
Delivery trend -6.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 03/11/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 26/11/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/01/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 11/02/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 27/04/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 09/07/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 04/08/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 17% | -0.60 |
| 02/09/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |