6
Summerfest
8yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 80
Presque Isle Downs · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-21 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength75%
Delivery trend -4.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 17/09/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 02/10/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 21/10/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 88% | +0.72 |
| 15/06/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |
| 13/07/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 83% | +0.18 |
| 03/08/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 18/08/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 25/08/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |