5
Hope She Comes
6yo Mare · 8-13 · OR 55
Presque Isle Downs · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength51%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-06-24 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength76%
Delivery trend -1.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/09/2025 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 06/10/2025 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/10/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 25/05/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 10/06/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 24/06/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 22/07/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 19/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |
| 09/09/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |