4
Twirlaway
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 63
Presque Isle Downs · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength55%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-07-13 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-04-15 | Keeneland | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength58%
Delivery trend +9.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/04/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 25/05/2026 | 7th | 5/2 | 87% | 14% | -0.73 |
| 13/07/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 04/08/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 20% | -0.43 |