Bermuda Run
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 85
Presque Isle Downs · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 3.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Penn National | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-07-30 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Penn National | ? | 1st | -2th | +3 |
| 2026-03-26 | Penn National | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-03-06 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/01/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 89% | +0.05 |
| 22/01/2026 | 4th | 6/5 | 94% | 57% | -0.37 |
| 20/02/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |
| 06/03/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 26/03/2026 | 6th | 11/8 | 93% | 17% | -0.76 |
| 17/04/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 30/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |
| 15/08/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 03/09/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |