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9yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 86
Presque Isle Downs · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
21%
Place Prob
24%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-22 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength49%
Delivery trend -4.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08/2025 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 22/09/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 01/10/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |
| 22/10/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 06/07/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 22/07/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 04/08/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 60% | -0.01 |
| 18/08/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 25% | -0.54 |
| 01/09/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |