5
Meant To Be Lucky
6yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 85
Presque Isle Downs · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength19%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-06-10 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-14 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-02 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength42%
Delivery trend -0.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 13/08/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |
| 25/08/2025 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 02/10/2025 | 2nd | 4/6 | 96% | 75% | -0.21 |
| 14/10/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 27/05/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 10/06/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 24/06/2026 | 7th | 2/1 | 89% | 14% | -0.75 |
| 20/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 50% | -0.45 |