2
Adios Buccaneer
6yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 94
Presque Isle Downs · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
8%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-10 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-24 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength16%
Delivery trend -11.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 20/10/2025 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 17/01/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 24/01/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 13% | -0.03 |
| 20/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |
| 10/06/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 17% | -0.54 |
| 22/06/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 03/08/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |
| 24/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |