Brilliant Journey
8yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 94
Presque Isle Downs · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-08 | Turfway Park | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-12-19 | Turfway Park | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 07/10/2025 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 60% | -0.31 |
| 22/10/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 19/12/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 08/01/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 08/06/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 02/07/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 80% | -0.10 |
| 03/08/2026 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 17/08/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 0% | -0.88 |