5
Extrasexybigdaddee
8yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 98
Presque Isle Downs · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
77%
Place Prob
53%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-07-02 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength27%
Delivery trend -11.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/01/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 86% | +0.23 |
| 17/01/2026 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 21/02/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 21/03/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 20/05/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 10/06/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |
| 02/07/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 40% | -0.28 |
| 29/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 17/08/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |