4
I'm Heading East
6yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 79
Presque Isle Downs · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +11.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08/2025 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 0% | -0.87 |
| 16/09/2025 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 25% | -0.64 |
| 20/05/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 02/06/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 24/06/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 20% | -0.43 |
| 08/07/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 11/08/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 24/08/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 60% | +0.02 |
| 08/09/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |