1
Mrs. Manicotti
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 81
Presque Isle Downs · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
24%
Place Prob
26%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength30%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-16 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength99%
Delivery trend +3.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07/2025 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 78% | +0.12 |
| 15/08/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 57% | -0.24 |
| 01/09/2025 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 43% | -0.40 |
| 16/09/2025 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 33% | -0.55 |
| 01/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 16/06/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 07/07/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 31/08/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 25% | -0.49 |
| 08/09/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |