7
Queen Wiggy
6yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 58
Presque Isle Downs · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength45%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-08-13 | Penn National | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Penn National | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-06-18 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-18 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength56%
Delivery trend +2.1% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |
| 13/07/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |
| 16/08/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 18/03/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 21/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 18/06/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 25/07/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 14% | -0.38 |
| 13/08/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 28/08/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 43% | +0.27 |