IvyArcIvyArc
5

Certain

6yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 97

Presque Isle Downs · Race 6 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f

#3

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength44%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 3.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Presque Isle Downs 26/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 100 · 6f 123 · beat its mark26/08/2025 · OR 100 par26/08C8OR 100C6 @ Presque Isle Downs 19/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 101 · 6f110y Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark19/09/2025 · OR 101 parC7 @ Presque Isle Downs 16/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 100 · 1m70y Fas 123 · below its mark16/10/2025 · OR 100 par16/10C7OR 100C7 @ Presque Isle Downs 20/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 96 · 6f 123 · beat its mark20/05/2026 · OR 96 parC6 @ Presque Isle Downs 10/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 96 · 6f 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark10/06/2026 · OR 96 par10/06C6OR 96C6 @ Presque Isle Downs 02/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 95 · 6f110y 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark02/07/2026 · OR 95 parC6 @ Presque Isle Downs 27/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 97 · 6f110y 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark27/07/2026 · OR 97 par27/07C6OR 97C6 @ Presque Isle Downs 14/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 97 · 6f110y 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark14/08/2026 · OR 97 parC6 @ Presque Isle Downs 07/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 97 · 6f 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark07/09/2026 · OR 97 par7/09C6OR 97projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07Presque Isle Downs?4th3rd+1
2026-08-14Presque Isle Downs?4th3rd+1
2026-07-27Presque Isle Downs?2nd1st+1
2026-07-02Presque Isle Downs?4th3rd+1
2026-06-10Presque Isle Downs?3rd2nd+1
2026-05-20Presque Isle Downs?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/0820/0527/077/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength38%

Delivery trend -1.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/08/20251st5/696%100%+0.04
19/09/20255th11/486%20%-0.66
16/10/20255th13/266%0%-0.66
20/05/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
10/06/20263rd11/893%50%-0.43
02/07/20264th2/189%25%-0.64
27/07/20262nd9/488%86%-0.02
14/08/20264th11/893%40%-0.53
07/09/20264th9/276%40%-0.36