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4

Paschal Moon

6yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 85

Presque Isle Downs · Race 6 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f

#4

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength12%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Finger Lakes 06/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 86 · 1m 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark06/10/2025 · OR 86 par6/10C5OR 86C8 @ Presque Isle Downs 23/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 83 · 6f110y 123 · below its mark23/10/2025 · OR 83 parC8 @ Finger Lakes 05/11/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 87 · 1m110y 122 · below its mark05/11/2025 · OR 87 par5/11C8OR 87C8 @ Finger Lakes 17/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 82 · 5f110y Slo 124 · below its mark17/11/2025 · OR 82 parC8 @ Presque Isle Downs 25/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 74 · 5f110y 123 · beat its mark25/05/2026 · OR 74 par25/05C8OR 74C8 @ Presque Isle Downs 23/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 76 · 5f110y Fas 125 · beat its mark23/06/2026 · OR 76 parC8 @ Presque Isle Downs 07/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 79 · 6f Fas 125 · beat its mark07/07/2026 · OR 79 par7/07C8OR 79C8 @ Presque Isle Downs 28/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 85 · 6f110y 123 · below its mark28/07/2026 · OR 85 parC7 @ Presque Isle Downs 07/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 85 · 6f 123 · beat its mark07/09/2026 · OR 85 par7/09C7OR 85projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07Presque Isle Downs?1st1st0
2026-07-28Presque Isle Downs?3rd4th−1
2026-07-07Presque Isle Downs?1st2nd−1
2026-06-23Presque Isle Downs?1st2nd−1
2026-05-25Presque Isle Downs?1st2nd−1
2025-11-17Finger Lakes?3rd4th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/1017/117/077/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +4.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/10/20255th11/271%20%-0.51
23/10/20252nd16/116%88%+0.72
05/11/20258th10/147%0%-0.47
17/11/20253rd13/266%67%+0.01
25/05/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
23/06/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
07/07/20261st10/382%100%+0.18
28/07/20263rd2/189%67%-0.23
07/09/20261st9/153%100%+0.47