2
Top Recruit
6yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 96
Presque Isle Downs · Race 6 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
11%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-15 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-22 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-08-25 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 2-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength58%
Delivery trend -2.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/05/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 18/06/2025 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 29/07/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 25/08/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 40% | -0.44 |
| 22/09/2025 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 75% | -0.20 |
| 18/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 15/06/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 03/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 67% | -0.28 |
| 29/07/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |