7
Chill Boss
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 76
Presque Isle Downs · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m 70y
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
12%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength12%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-06-02 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-04-24 | Penn National | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2026-04-16 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength71%
Delivery trend +2.0% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09/2025 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 22/10/2025 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 63% | -0.20 |
| 20/11/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 25% | -0.51 |
| 16/04/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 25% | -0.51 |
| 24/04/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 02/06/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 22/06/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 22/07/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 83% | +0.57 |
| 31/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |