2
Drunkle
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 85
Presque Isle Downs · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m 70y
#2
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
41%
Place Prob
30%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -2.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-08-05 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-07-22 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-07-14 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-06-22 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2025-10-16 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength68%
Delivery trend +1.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 80% | +0.17 |
| 10/09/2025 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |
| 23/09/2025 | 1st | 1/5 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 16/10/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 22/06/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 33% | -0.48 |
| 14/07/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 22/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 71% | +0.08 |
| 05/08/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 25/08/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |