3
Duck Hunter
3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 86
Presque Isle Downs · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m 70y
#4
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
9%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲3
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: -2.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-08-14 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-07-27 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-06-16 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-06-02 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2025-10-16 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength99%
Delivery trend +4.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 16/09/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 01/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 16/10/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 02/06/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 16/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 27/07/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 14/08/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 24/08/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |